As experts debate the health of the global markets and the Federal Reserve takes incisive action to stimulate the contracting economy, a career in finance never seemed as shaky as it does these days.

So, to gauge the feelings of those employed in the industry, FINS surveyed 226 finance professionals to see what they thought about the future of finance, the economy as a whole and their own prospects for the coming year.

We also asked them to name the biggest event in the finance industry in 2010. Their answers -- some slightly optimistic, some downright starry-eyed -- may surprise you.

FINDINGS


First half or second half?
Survey respondents were split on whether U.S. economic recovery -- and the accompanying increase in finance industry hiring -- would occur in the first half or the second half of 2010. While 39% of respondents thought that recovery would occur in the first half, 34% predicted that recovery would occur in the second half.

Predictions for acceleration in finance hiring dovetailed nicely: 42% see acceleration in the first half of 2010; 40% see acceleration in the second half.

While relatively split on when in 2010 things will turn around, survey respondents were fairly certain that nothing much will occur next summer: Only 15% thought we'd see recovery and only 11% thought finance hiring would accelerate.

The Housing Market Will Key Economic Recovery
What's going to be the single biggest event in the finance industry in 2010? Federal regulatory overhaul? Maybe. Finance industry consolidation? Perhaps.

But what about a housing market recovery? Believe it or not, some 10% of our respondents see a housing market recovery as the most important event in finance in 2010.

Some saw a TARP-like bailout keying a housing recovery while others saw a mid-level housing boom as the culprit.

Either way, those that predicted a U.S. housing recovery in 2010 were exceedingly optimistic about their personal prospects, with 78% saying they would be "very likely" working in finance a year from now, a full 15 points above the group as a whole.

Bullish on Stocks
You might think that a full stock market recovery -- with prices reaching early 2008 levels -- is unlikely at best in the next 12 months. A solid 13% of our survey respondents would disagree with you.

Crazy? No way. Just optimistic. Statistically optimistic.

This group exceeded the entire survey panel in optimism on every question. About 83% said the finance industry was a "very desirable" or "desirable," compared with 74% for the group as a whole. About 86% said that the finance industry is a "very stable" or "stable" place to build a career, compared with 71% for the group as a whole. About 90% said that they would "very likely" or "likely" be employed in the finance industry in 12 months, compared with 85% for the group as a whole.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS


How would you rate the finance industry as a place to work today?

- Very Desirable -- 25%

** Desirable -- 49% **

- Undesirable -- 19%

- Very Undesirable -- 7%

Overall, how would you describe the current finance industry as a place to build a career?

- Very stable -- 29%

** Stable -- 42% **

- Unstable -- 24%

- Very unstable -- 4%

How likely is it that you will be employed in the finance industry in twelve months?

** Very likely -- 63% **

- Likely -- 22%

- Unlikely -- 7%

- Very unlikely -- 8%

When do you predict the U.S. economy will rebound?

- Q3 2009 -- 3%

- Q4 2009 -- 17%

** Q1 2010 -- 20% **

- Q2 2010 -- 19%

- Q3 2010 -- 15%

- Q4 2010 -- 19%

When will hiring in the finance industry accelerate?

- Q3 2009 -- 5%

- Q4 2009 -- 6%

- Q1 2010 -- 22%

- Q2 2010 -- 20%

- Q3 2010 -- 11%

** Q4 2010 -- 29% **

What do you think will be the single biggest event in the finance industry in 2010?

1. The stock market will rebound to levels seen before the crash of last fall (13%)

2. Greater regulation of banking and Wall Street (12%)