Hire Wire Sep 08 2011

Obama Jobs Speech -- Real Time Reaction

By By FINS Team

Keep checking in for up-to-the-minute notes on the jobs speech and how it could impact your job search and your career.

7:59 P.M: Now that the bill is on the table and Congress has been called out by the President repeatedly to pass it, does it have a chance?

"I think a substantial part of it will get passed, but as a full package, that's unlikely," said Norman J. Ornstein, resident scholar for the Washington, D.C.-based American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. "It sounds clear from what he said that is he's going to come up with a big follow-up plan that sounds close to the grand bargain that he recently worked out with Boehner. It's likely that his new plan will include all of this in it with additional taxes on the rich and cuts on Medicare to pay for it.

"But no matter what," Ornstein said, "I've got to believe that people watching his speech and worrying about their jobs are going to feel more confident, more secure and more feisty and they can expect a lot of what he said to occur."

7:55 P.M: Final thoughts?

Troy Davig, a senior U.S. economist at Barclays Capital: "It's more than I had anticipated. I'm still going through the details here. There were things in there that I hadn't heard beforehand. In terms of the ultimate objective: spurring job creation…it's not going to hurt and it's likely to help. But is it politically viable? That's a critical question."

Taylor Marsh, political blogger: "Everything he said would be terrific -- if teachers and construction workers would be put back to work. I just don't see the follow-through when he talks about reform on Medicare and deficit reduction at the same time. That's the politics of re-election."

Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist and managing director at Mesirow Financial: "On net, he sounded passionate without coming across as too sanctimonious. He gets high marks on veterans, on cutting taxes, and for the emphasis on a balanced budget. The infrastructure piece is the less convincing -- if it failed in the past, then there is little reason to believe it won't fail in the future."

7:43 P.M: Will the speech have the emotional impact perhaps the American people need?

"He came back strong at the end and hit a lot of familiar themes," said Laurenti. "I don't know if it will be strong enough to give confidence to the economy, but I think it will have an impact on the political front."

7:38 P.M: Obama cited Republican president Abraham Lincoln as the one "who mobilized government to build the transcontinental railroad; launch the National Academy of Sciences; and set up the first land grant colleges."

He has been repeatedly saying that his proposals have had support from Democrats and Republicans in the past.

7:37 P.M: Obama referenced getting American corporations to commit to training 10,000 American engineers a year. This is not a new plan to increase engineering training.

This was an initiative that was announced on August 31.

7:32 P.M: Obama said despite resistance from the Democratic party, reforming Medicare is a must: "If we don't gradually reform the system while protecting current beneficiaries, it won't be there when future retirees need it. We have to reform Medicare to strengthen it."

"The Medicare piece was surprising, and very compelling. He gets high marks for making the point, but of course we need to see the details," said Laurenti. "It is a complex matter, that can be approached in different ways, but the challenge must be on the table -- and the President put it there."

7:30 P.M: Obama goes back to the "winning the future" theme, saying, "If we want [companies] to start here and stay here and hire here, we have to be able to out-build, out-educate, and out-innovate every other country on Earth."

7:29 P.M: Obama cited Warren Buffett's influential editorial in the New York Times from August.

Read the Buffett editorial here.

Obama said Warren Buffet's secretary pays more in taxes than he does -- in the op-ed, Buffet suggested his taxes be raised. Obama said the country needs a more fair tax code.

7:20 P.M: Obama: "Pass this jobs bill, and companies will get extra tax credits if they hire America's veterans. We ask these men and women to leave their careers, leave their families, and risk their lives to fight for our country. The last thing they should have to do is fight for a job when they come home."

"That's very positive. That should not be controversial. It's shameful that we have not done it already. It's one of the stronger points in terms of bi-partisan support," said Laurenti.

7:19 P.M: Obama said early in the speech that it's not about politics. Is that true?

"Of course not," said Taylor Marsh, political blogger and analyst. "The reason he did this speech in the first place is all political. And anyone who says this isn't part of a re-election speech isn't facing reality."

He could be more aggressive, said Marsh.

"He needs to pressure his opponents so they feel uncomfortable saying no. He needs to target his opponents and focus on the need for infrastructure in their districts," she said. "Pick a bridge in Boehner's district and cite that as a need for spending. He needs to get in their face."

7:17 P.M: Payroll taxes cut in half, Obama said.

"That adds up. The thing I'm curious about right now is how this is all going to be paid for," said Davig. "It's unlikely that you could fully fund this without raising taxes somehow."

7:13 P.M: The full text of the speech here.

7:08 P.M: In first lady Michelle Obama's private box: GE's Jeffrey Immelt, and AOL co-founder Steve Case.

President has just started.

7:04 P.M: According to Yahoo Finance, the jobs package will be worth about $450 billion.

"That's considerably larger than I think anybody expected," said Davig.

7:00 P.M: WSJ has some excerpts here. Early reaction?

"I think he is overplaying his hand," said Laurenti, citing that the "infrastructure" spending mentioned in the excerpt amounts to a second stimulus, which, he said, was controversial two years ago and is politically unpopular today.

"I think he can easily find bi-partisan support for some of the other provisions," he said.

6:53 P.M: In a perfect world, what should the President do?

"He really needs to talk about laying a backdrop that's somewhat stable for businesses to begin hiring," said Troy Davig, a senior U.S. economist at Barclays Capital.

Essentially, according to Davig, the best the President can offer is policy prescriptions that create a more certain environment for business.

6:40 P.M: With the President set to go on in about 20 minutes, it seems a good time for final thoughts on expectations. The consensus in the news media and among economists seems to be that Obama won't be introducing anything ground-breaking.

"My expectations are low," said Adolfo L. Laurenti, deputy chief economist and managing director at Chicago-based financial services firm Mesirow Financial. "I think there is no job plan. There will be a lot of patchwork provisions."

Provisions like extending the payroll tax credit and making it easier for home-owners to refinance their mortgages, said Laurenti.

The most important thing the President can do, said Laurenti, is give hope to recession-weary Americans.

"This is clearly an economy and a country that needs reassurance and a boost of confidence," he said. Obama "needs to come up with a compelling case for optimism in our future economy."


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